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Episode 1373: Podcasts Per Hour
Date May 9, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about Shohei Ohtani’s return, Mike Fiers’no-hitter, and the hard-luck Reds, do a Stat Blast and banter about True Wins vs. no-hitters and other standout starts, and answer listener emails about baseball and the gambler’s fallacy, umpires estimating the outcome of every batted ball (and whether pitchers, hitters, or fielders are the most dispensable players on the field from an entertainment standpoint), why we measure pitch speeds in mph rather than ft/s (and whether we should adjust the way we present spin rate), whether NL managers have it harder than AL managers, the long-term stylistic evolution of baseball, and more (plus, Lenny Harris sends his regards to Jeff). Topics * True Wins vs. no-hitters * One-hit and no-walk shutouts * Gambler's fallacy and hot/cold streaks * Could umpires estimate the results of each play? * Removing pitchers, batters, or fielders from the game * Use of MPH for pitchers and feet per second for sprint speed * Difficulty of managing in the AL or NL * Weakly held sabermetric beliefs Intro Jason Falkner, "Say it's True" Outro Wilco, "Tried and True" Banter * Ben excitedly watched Shohei Ohtani's return and was happy to also get to see Mike Trout and Andrelton Simmons play. * Episode 1372 follow-up: Mike Fiers' no-hitter and whether true wins are more impressive Email Questions * Alex: "I was curious if the gambler's fallacy still holds in baseball. That is, if a player is playing really well or really poorly (over a significant enough number of plate appearances), we shouldn't expect his performance to overcompensate in the other direction in order to regress back to his preseason projections. However, front offices are constantly looking at opposing players to find their weaknesses and will mercilessly exploit that weakness as soon as they can. If a player is playing really well, are they more likely to run into a cold streak soon after for this reason, thus going against the gambler's fallacy? Is it reasonable to expect that a struggling player will bounce back with a hot streak after a poor start?" * Kyle (Seoul, South Korea): "What if there were no fielders on the field besides the pitcher and the umpires had to decide off the bat the result of every ball ("groundout," "flyout," "infield fly,", "single," "double," "triple," etc.) For balls hit in the air they would have to make the call as quickly as possible, much before the ball lands. How accurately do you think the umpire-called results would be compared to real-life results? I guess mentally projecting infield shifts would make this more difficult these days for them to predict as well." * Anthony (Albuquerque, NM): "I was wondering if you guys had any insight as to why pitch speeds are measured and discussed in terms of Miles per Hour rather than Feet per Second. I realize that it’s probably a result of using radar guns that spit out numbers in Miles per Hour. But, pitches are in the air for about half a second and travel about 60 feet. They don’t typically travel a mile or hang in the air for an hour." * Colby: "I recently saw yet another online argument between AL and NL fans regarding the DH. One common argument that I see is that NL managers have a more difficult (and therefore more interesting) job as they deal with pinch hitters and pitching swaps. This time the argument turned to suggesting that AL managers can basically sleep through games as they don't have to deal with the same things the NL managers do. My question is whether or not you think managing an NL team is drastically more difficult or intensive than an AL team? Also, is there evidence that shows that AL managers struggle with these decisions when playing in an NL stadium?" * Jonny: "Which sabermetrics finding would you most quickly abandon at the first hint of contradictory evidence?" Stat Blast * Sam follows up on a discussion from Episode 1372 and looks at whether no-hitters or true wins are more impressive (since 1950). He also includes information about 1 and 2 hit shutouts. * There have been 157 non-perfect no-hitters that have an average game score of 91. One-hit CGSOs have an average game score of 89 but a better FIP than the no-hitters. * Sam compares pitchers who hit only one career home run and those with no career home runs. Those with a home run had about 24 points of batting average higher and 13 points of slugging higher than those without a home run. * Sam concludes that in 2019 throwing a CGSO is nearly as impressive as a no-hitter and that a true win is more impressive. Notes * Sam's friend Russ (who coined the term True Win) has a group of friends called the East Meadow Crew. Sam says that in elementary school he had a group of friends that called themselves the Daredevil Club. * There have been four no-hit True Wins in MLB history. * Ben and Sam point out how spin rate is measured in rotations per minute given how few times a ball rotates on its way to the play. * A listener commissioned Lenny Harris on Cameo to wish Jeff congratulations on his recent wedding. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1373: Podcasts Per Hour * Andrelton Simmons catch * Appreciating Andrelton Simmons by Sam Miller * Stop everything you're doing and watch Andrelton Simmons by Sam Miller * Noah Syndergaard True Win Bobblehead * Why Do We Use MPH? by Brad Johnson * Speed of sound: Statcast measures fastest outfielders by Mike Petriello * We're Actually Watching the Best Baseball Players Ever by Ben Lindbergh * Lenny Harris' Cameo message for Jeff Sullivan Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes